With the market projected to be relatively in surplus this decade, BloombergNEF expects prices will hold at an average of $44,000 per ton up to 2025,” it said. “The cobalt metal price could average $45,000 per ton year-end 2021. In contrast, Fastmarkets expects “prices to remain elevated in 2022, but below current levels.”Īccording to algorithm-based price forecast service provider Trading Economics, cobalt is expected to trade at $65,963.79 a tonne ($29.92/lb) at the end of 2021, but price is forecast to fall to $62,812.44 ($28.49/lb) in 12 months’ time.īloombergNEF’s cobalt price forecast 2022 to 2025 in July was less bullish as production ramped up in the DRC. S&P Global Market Intelligence’s forecast in September predicted cobalt prices would soften in the December quarter to an average price of $21.46/lb in 2021, “followed by an 11% price correction in 2022 as supply flows normalise from mine expansions in Democratic Republic of Congo.” Lower cobalt prices in 2022ĭespite the forecast deficit, analysts expect the cobalt price in 2022 to be lower than this year. The market will move to a surplus of 1,000 tonnes in 2022. “As for any commodity that is dug out of the ground, producers do not always have the spare capacity to instantly respond to changes in demand,” said CME in July.Īs a result, several analysts, including Fastmarkets, expect the cobalt market to be in slight supply deficit in 20.Īccording to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the cobalt market deficit in 2021 is estimated at 8,000 tonnes, compared to a surplus of 4,000 tonnes in 2020. Output is expected to reach 107,730 tonnes in 2022 and continue to rise to 116,350 tonnes in 2023.Īlthough Fitch is optimistic about the new cobalt projects that are expected to come online in the next decade, there are also risks that these projects may not deliver. According to the US Geological Survey (USGS) and industry consultancy Fitch Solutions data, the global cobalt mine output is expected to grow in 2022 to 2030.ĭRC Cobalt mine production in 2021 is expected at 102,600 tonnes, up 8% from the previous year. Cobalt production in 20 is forecast at 50,000 tonnes a year.Ī majority of the group’s annual production is from the Katanga cobalt circuit, while the by-product output from Glencore’s nickel assets is expected to remain stable over the forecast period of 2021 to 2024. As cobalt demand and prices recovered, Glencore announced in June this year that it will restart the mothballed Mutanda mine and production is expected at the end of 2021.Īccording to Glencore’s production guidance announced during the group’s investor update on 2 December, cobalt output is expected to reach 32,000-38,000 tonnes in 2021, rising to 45,000 to 51,000 tonnes in 2022. Cobalt output at Mutanda mine was at 25,000 tonnes in 2019, making it the world’s largest cobalt mine, wrote CME. When cobalt prices crashed in 2019, Glencore shut its Mutanda mine as the metal’s prices were below production cost and the operation was no longer profitable. More than 70% of the world’s cobalt supply is sourced in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in central Africa, according to the world largest cobalt producer and trading firm Glencore.īesides Glencore, which operates the Mutanda and Katanga mine in the DRC, Chinese producers Huayou and China Molybdnum Co. Production overviewĬobalt is primarily mined as a by-product from non-ferrous metal copper and nickel. Will cobalt prices continue to rise this year and beyond? Read on to find out the cobalt market outlook and cobalt price trend. And, given the volatile nature of the cobalt market, prices could fall as seen in 2019, when lower-than-expected demand pulled the metal as low as $12/lb. The December CME cobalt contract settled at $32.24/lb on 6 December, up 4.5% from the previous week.Īlthough prices have been rising throughout this year as consumers restocked, cobalt metal value is still well below the 10-year high of $45/lb in 2018. The Cobalt Metal (Fastmarkets) futures contract prices are based on the price reporting agency’s indices. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched cash-settled futures on its COMEX exchange in late 2020. According to the price reporting agency (PRA), the benchmark standard grade cobalt metal price started the year at $15.30 a pound (lb) and has increased throughout most of the year to above $30/lb in December. The element is a crucial component in the batteries used to power those vehicles.Ĭobalt prices have more than doubled since the beginning of the year. Supply tightness amid strong demand driven by rising global electric vehicle (EV) sales continue to boost cobalt prices in the second half of this year. Cobalt price forecast: Will rising supply pressure the market? – Photo: Shutterstock
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